单纯的风

也就是现在的99W


不过目前发展的非常不错....槽前的辐散,冷涌..等配合,命名几率将非常大. .  

JTWC已经对它发出TCFA了



REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.8N
150.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER OF A SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 180746Z WINDSAT PASS.
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND STRONG PERIPHERAL WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE LLCC, WITH WEAKER 10-15 KNOT WESTERLIES WINDS
CLOSING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LLCC LIES
BENEATH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH ARE ENHANCING THIS OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE
GOOD LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD


未来的路径可能是先西北偏北后转向东北.  
跟去年的剑鱼差不多

8

[ 本帖最后由 单纯的风 于 2008-10-19 15:31 编辑 ]

单纯的风

熱帯低気圧
平成20年10月19日07時10分 発表
<19日06時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 小笠原近海
中心位置 北緯 24度50分(24.8度)
東経 148度25分(148.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<20日06時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 日本の東
予報円の中心 北緯 30度55分(30.9度)
東経 149度05分(149.1度)
進行方向、速さ 北 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

单纯的风

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//   
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181051Z OCT 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/  
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 24.3N 148.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 148.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 27.0N 148.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 30.0N 149.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 33.7N 152.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 37.5N 156.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 148.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL STORM IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. A 181534 AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP FROM THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS, AND AN OLDER,
PARTIAL 180747Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, AND WILL THEN RECURVE AND
ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE STORM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION JUST BEYOND TAU 24 WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR REMAINING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181051Z OCT 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 181100) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN



[ 本帖最后由 单纯的风 于 2008-10-19 07:02 编辑 ]

单纯的风

TPPN11 PGTW 190016

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (N OF GUAM)

B. 18/2330Z

C. 25.2N

D. 148.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18HRS  STT: S0.0/06HRS  (18/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

   40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.  MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

   SMITH

单纯的风

ZCZC 695
WTPQ20 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  181800UTC 24.5N 148.6E POOR
MOVE  NW 12KT
PRES  1006HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  191800UTC 30.0N 148.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE  N 14KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT =
NNNN

zjw

看不懂!

单纯的风

TPPN10 PGTW 190603

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (N OF GUAM)

B. 19/0530Z

C. 26.8N

D. 148.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/06HRS  (19/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

   40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.  MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.

   SMITH

单纯的风

熱帶性低氣壓１００４百帕，在北緯２５．５度，東經１４８．０度，即在日本東南方海面，向北北西移動，時速２５公里；有發展為輕度颱風之趨勢

单纯的风

台風第18号 (バービー)
平成20年10月19日16時20分 発表
<19日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 小笠原近海
中心位置 北緯 26度35分(26.6度)
東経 148度25分(148.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域 全域 170km(90NM)

<20日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 日本の東
予報円の中心 北緯 34度40分(34.7度)
東経 150度25分(150.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北 40km/h(21kt)
中心気圧 992hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

<21日15時の予報>
強さ -
温帯低気圧
存在地域 日本のはるか東
予報円の中心 北緯 40度35分(40.6度)
東経 158度10分(158.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北東 40km/h(21kt)
中心気圧 976hPa
最大風速 25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径 370km(200NM)


命名咯~~~~~~

单纯的风

WTPQ20 BABJ 190600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS BAVI 0818 (0818) INITIAL TIME 190600 UTC
00HR 26.7N 148.4E 1000HPA 18M/S
30KTS 100KM
P12HR N 40KM/H
P+24HR 36.0N 150.0E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 43.0N 160.0E 985HPA 25M/S=

丽人

谢谢！

zjw

单纯的风

2008-10-19 今年第0818号台风(巴威) 10月19日14时(北京时间)，此台风的中心位置在北纬26.7度,东经148.4度,中心气压 1000百帕,近中心最大风速18米/秒,移向 N ,移速 40公里/小时,七级大风圈半径100公里.

单纯的风

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                  ADT-Version 7.2.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  19 OCT 2008    Time : 103000 UTC
      Lat :   27:48:45 N     Lon :  148:50:37 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.8 / 979.2mb/ 61.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
             (3hr avg)               
                3.7     3.3     3.1

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

Center Temp : -62.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -61.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC  
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

单纯的风

TPPN10 PGTW 191232

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (BAVI)

B. 19/1130Z

C. 28.7N

D. 149.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/06HRS  (19/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR

   24A/PBO SM EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. DT UNCLEAR DUE TO SMALL SIZE OF
CDO FEATURE AND LIMITATIONS BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT. DBO MET
FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND PT.

   BRANDON