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Following the last southern hemisphere summer, the central tropical Indian Ocean has seen the development of four active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation [MJO], evidenced by tropical convection increasing in vigour and extent over that region. These events occurred around mid March, mid April, late May and mid June. The March event had a weak signal as it progressed across the longitudes of the Maritime Continent, with little apparent impact over much of northern Australia. Active convection associated with the April event lingered about the western Pacific until the middle of May.
The MJO associated pulse of active convection that progressed into the equatorial Indian Ocean around late May displayed slow eastward progression over the northern tropical latitudes and contributed to the onset and progress of the Indian Monsoon. A weak pulse of active convection appeared in the equatorial western Indian Ocean in the middle of June. This active convection did not show signs of eastward propagation like a typical MJO signal. A fresh active convection appeared in the western tropical Indian Ocean during the middle of July. The northern hemisphere monsoon remained active over northern India and China during the past few weeks. Convection remained above average over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Maritime continent during the past two weeks. Model guidance suggests little chance of this active convection being related to a MJO signal and is not conclusive of its relationship to the easterly or kelvin wave propagation. Hence it is uncertain that the active convection will progress from the equatorial Indian ocean further east into the western Pacific during the next week or two, and be treated as a typical MJO signal.
[ 本帖最后由 罗君 于 2008-8-16 10:15 编辑 ]
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